December began with an incident that went almost unremarked by the larger
world struggling to come to terms with its own economic problems. An
anonymous Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire in the small village
of Sidi Bouzid in a desperate protest against the confiscation of his wares by
corrupt officials. Elsewhere, as the year came to a close, what had started as a US
sub-prime crisis was rapidly morphing into a fully-fledged sovereign debt crisis,
threatening to drag Europe into the maelstrom and the rest of the world with it.
Amongst those responsible were Bush and Blair, now retired from the world
political scene, reaping the benefits of their years in power; the pay off, richly
rewarded lecture tours, highly paid positions on the boards of oil companies.
Behind them they had left a legacy that was to mark the world for years if not
decades to come.
The unfinished Iraq War had left a lasting mark on modern history and the fall
out threatened to engulf the Middle East, opposing Iran on the northern shores of
the Gulf and the Western surrogates to the south, amongst them Israel. Certain
called for Bush and Blair to face prosecution at the International Criminal Court in
the Hague for having misled the world with their lies of weapons of mass
destruction.
Europe was however more concerned with its own immediate problems, where
even Europhiles, Fitzwilliams and Kennedy amongst them, criticised numerous
aspects of the Union’s structure and not the least the Eurozone. Explaining to their
detractors their opinions were the healthy sign of a democratic system. The bankers
knew that Ireland without the euro would have gone under.
Fitzwilliams and his bank functioned in a country that was, to a great extent antiEuropean, for many reasons; the first being the threat to the City from a powerful
core at the centre of the Eurozone, and secondly for historical reasons that went
further back than the 19th century balance of power.
For the two bankers Europe was too big to fail, and as their partner Tarasov never
ceased to underline, the collapse of the Soviet Union bore lessons that Europe’s
politicians should heed if they were to avoid a disastrous debacle.
Three decades previously, on New Year’s Day, 1992, the world woke up to
discover the Soviet Union no longer existed. For those in the West whose lives had
been influenced by the Cold War, the collapse of the only other superpower was an
event of unbelievable magnitude. Of course the Soviets had been struggling
through a long drawn out economic crisis, trying to come to terms with a changing
world, where modern communications prevented them from hiding the truth from
their fellow comrades.
It was Europe's turn to be confronted with a grave crisis, though the Union was
very far from being terminally ill. If the political will was there, then the euro
would survive. It would require a leader, a strong leader to show the way. That
D
leader could not come from Britain, given its barely hidden disguised interest in the
failure of the euro project. France’s Sarkozy was not a candidate; his position was
undermined by a large part of the left wing French establishment. That left Angela
Merkel and the fear of a German led Europe.
‘I for one do not see a pre-1939 situation, or even a 1914 situation for that
matter!’ Francis told his friends. ‘The EU is there is because previous models
failed, not the other way around! A banking business that spans Europe is better
than one that spans the UK!’
‘Isn’t it better to be in the US, or in Hong Kong?’ asked Pat.
‘People always look at what appears to be the easy way, in that I mean language,’
replied Francis. ‘Of course New York offers vast opportunities, but tell, me which
British or European bank has made a lasting success in the USA, or why HSBC
quit Hong Kong.’
‘That’s why we joined forces with Sergei,’ said Fitzwilliams nodding to Tarasov.
‘Anyway, the majority of Brits are now anti-EU.’
‘Most of them haven’t the least idea of the implications of leaving Europe. We
can’t put the clock back given the forces driving global and regional integration.’
‘Geographically, historically and economically the UK is part of Europe. The
idea they can somehow manipulate the Commonwealth to their own need is
ridiculous. India will soon have a population of over one and a half billion, many
of whom would like to settle down here, Australia is looking to East Asia, and
Canada is bound to the US. What do we have to offer them?’
Francis laughed.
‘You’re right Michael, it won’t be us selling Jaguars to India, but India selling
Jaguars to us.’
‘Here in the UK, the number of unskilled, unqualified, no hope communities is
growing. But at the same time the inverse is happening in India. Bangalore, India’s
Silicon Valley, has a population of two million and is growing at a rate of fifteen
percent a year. As regards China, it’s on the fast track to overtaking us in just about
every technical and manufacturing domain.
‘To make matters worse we’re educating them, our universities are overflowing
with Chinese and other Asian students. British short term leaders and politicians,
who hike the cost of university education for our young people puff, their chest out
in pride when they talk of the excellence of British higher education, forgetting
we’re educating those who will dominate us.’
‘In Russia we have vast natural resources oil, gas, metals and timber,’ remarked
Tarasov. ‘But we lack a developed service industry, and between us,’ he continued
lowering his voice, ‘our investment environment depends on the whims of the
Kremlin, without the support of Putin you can forget about developing any serious
business in Russia.’
‘That’s why the City is our raison d’être Sergei,’ Fitzwilliams remarked. ‘It offers
a safe haven. Just by the sheer scale of the business conducted here it’s an
extraordinary source of wealth. It’s a vital and growing part of British economy,
but any idea of abandoning Europe would be like abandoning our own future.
‘Well said Michael,’ said Kennedy enthusiastically.
Fitzwilliams excused himself and disappeared with Tarasov, leaving the others
continue their discussion over lunch. Pat for one was relieved to escape
Fitzwilliams’ dominant shadow and took the opportunity to question Francis about
China and more in particular what the future held for them.
‘The future of China? How the world will look twenty, thirty or more years from
now?’
‘For example.’
‘Well it wouldn’t be a surprise to imagine China dominating it, economically and
politically.’
‘In the world where I lived when I was a kid, back in Limerick that was
unimaginable. We prayed for China, or was it Russia. In any case they were
beyond the pale, poor and oppressed, no-hopers, basket cases.’
‘The only thing that seems certain is the relative decline of the West. We have
always seen the vast populations of China and India as a terrible burden, but now it
seems they are a strength. The source of economic growth. The same goes for the
rest of the developing world.’
‘Are we’re shrinking…relatively speaking, I mean economically and population
wise.’
‘That’s right Pat…shrinking.’
‘Unless we get our game together, by that I mean Europe.’
‘For the UK that seems more and more problematical.’
‘It’s a pity, by 2050, the population of the UK will reach one hundred million,
that’s not far off the double today’s, and I suppose the same thing will happen in
the rest of Europe, one billion Europeans, not so small eh!’
‘A third of China and India combined, forgetting Africa and South America.
Imagine China with a per capita GDP seven times that of today.’
‘Sounds like a good place to do business!’
‘For myself,’ said Barton, ‘I wouldn’t bet on India. As for the rest remember what
happened to Japan!’