Winters suddenly sighed and asked in a low voice, "Is war upon us?"
"There must be an enemy for a war, right?"
"The Tanilians, the Republic wants to seize the islands," Winters gave the answer calmly, "I'm really too slow, only coming to realize this now."
Antonio neither denied nor confirmed, but counter-asked, "Then why would Vineta go to war with its important source of raw materials and trading partner?"
"I don't know the reason, but what I've learned from history is that people can find ten thousand reasons to start a war, and ten thousand reasons to stop one. War is not a duel between two, each party in a war has conflicting interests. As for the fundamental reason for a war, that can only be known from historical records after the war ends. I'm just trying to infer the direction of the wheels from the ruts."
"What ruts?" Antonio seemed intrigued.
"Bits of information, rumors in the military academy, the disputes between the Islands and Sea Blue, the tense atmosphere within the army headquarters, your casual mention of the conscription of reservists... and most importantly, what's the point of framing pirates? Can the army even control the pirates? It's simply a way to lead the fire towards the Islands."
"Interesting," Antonio said.
Winters asked with difficulty, "Must there be a war?" This was not a question a soldier should ask,
"Not necessarily, war is just a means, not the goal. Making grandiose preparations for war is sometimes only for gaining more negotiating chips. Vineta is not a place before the mountains; the final action will be decided by the ruling committee," Antonio said with a clear and calm voice,
He spoke unhurriedly, "But military deterrence not only comes from force but also the determination to use it. If the wrong message is conveyed, making the Archipelago Confederation think Sea Blue dares not to take military action, then war becomes the only path. Have you seen the Great General and the lesser generals fighting with wild cats in the yard?"
"I have, the lesser generals are smaller in size but more ferocious." Every spring and autumn night, fights between cats would rise to a crescendo around Winters's home.
"Wrong, it's not that the lesser generals are more ferocious, but the wild cats think they can bully the lesser generals and dare to challenge them. And the Great General? As soon as it sees a wild cat on its territory, it rushes to fight a battle to the death. The wild cats nearby are all afraid of it and steer clear of it. In the end, it's the lesser general who doesn't like to stir trouble but ends up fighting with the wild cats more often."
"So has the Republic made preparations for war?" Winters mused over this conversation, feeling he knew far too little.
"Yes and no. Plans have been devised one after another for several years, but if the supervisory government doesn't make a decision, the plans are nothing but waste paper," Antonio snorted with dissatisfaction, "Only after the governor made that vehement speech in the Senate a month ago did the thirteen-member committee agree to start preparing materials for war."
[The Thirteen-Member Committee, aka the Vineta Republic's Military Committee, members are composed of the army and navy high-ranking officials.]
"I think The Federated Provinces probably won't just sit back and watch us take control of the Islands." If Sea Blue took over the Islands, it would inevitably disrupt the delicate balance within the Alliance.
"'Feilengcui' has already stood off against 'Torrent River' on the northern Border River, otherwise why do you think this year they didn't let you travel by land but made you return to Vineta by sea?"
[The Fourth 'Feilengcui' Legion, Sea Blue Republic Army]
[The Second 'Torrent River' Legion, The Federated Provinces Army]
Winters felt chills down his back, two of the Alliance's standing army legions were already confronting one another at the border, no wonder they'd changed to travel by ship this year. But he found the absurdity incredulous, "Don't tell me we'll have to fight with the United Provincials first?"
"How could that be? The Provincial Army, no matter how reckless, wouldn't dare take such a monstrous risk of starting a civil war," Antonio laughed, trying to comfort his nephew, "Their intent is merely to constrain us, so we can't give our all, buying themselves time to control the Islands."
"The Federated Provinces also want to control the Islands?"
Antonio countered, "Sea Blue and The Federated Provinces each occupy half of the bay; whoever takes the Islands can control the inland sea trade. Let me ask you, if you were The Federated Provinces' Secretary of State, wouldn't you want to control Taniria?"
In the past, the Taniria Islands were also directly under the royal dominion. Unlike Sea Blue, which became a royal possession due to its wealth, Taniria was deemed a royal possession because it was so desolate that no one desired it—until they had to. Before the introduction of sugarcane and other cash crops, it was just a wilderness where only self-sustaining islanders and exiled criminals existed.
More than thirty years ago, the Alliance navy, with just a few galleons, set out from Taniria and ravaged the Empire's maritime transport ships with such ferocity that it forced the emperor to bypass the Sheltering Mountains to supply Duke Arian. The Islands, as a place where the Alliance navy disposed of their loot and resupplied, attracted the greediest sailors, mercenaries, and speculators from across the continent, leading to the Islands' prosperity.
It was also during this time that sugarcane was introduced to this land. Plantations started to appear throughout the interior of the large and small islands. Updates are released by novel⚑fire.net
After the madman Richard retreated, the captains and plantation owners' associations took this opportunity to declare independence from the Empire, turning themselves into a permanent "Neutral Free Port." For over twenty years, they've existed as a loose confederation sandwiched between various powers.